Theories and Hypotheses

HYPOTHESIS: A relatively specific prediction of how two or more variables should be related, often derived from a larger theory. Prediction should be testable and falsifiable.

Theory, Uh! What is it good for? Absolutely something!

Essay by Werner Ulrich, a "deep" philosophical inquiry that discusses pros and cons of how theory is currently used.

"...theory is considered to be an important vehicle for knowledge generation – rightly so, for a number of reasons. To mention just a few basic reasons, theoretical conjectures influence the questions we investigate in the first place; they determine the choice of research methods; and they condition the way we interpret research results as well as the conclusions we draw with a view to practical action.

...it is not sufficient for knowledge that our beliefs or hypotheses conform to experience... we must also be able to explain why this is so. If I predict that it will rain tomorrow and this actually happens, it could simply be by chance... Similarly, if as a researcher or professional I apply some methodology and find that "it works," I should be able to explain why this is so, otherwise I cannot have faith in the results."

In the mental health field, the theory a therapist identifies with will guide the form of treatment (evaluation studies should also show the treatment to be effective).
Social psychologists Abrams and Hogg (Pers. Soc. Psych. Rev., 2004) write that:

"A [meta] theory is like a good travel guide – it tells you where to go and where not to go, what is worthwhile and what is not, the best way to get to a destination, and where it is best to rest a while... it informs the sorts of questions one asks and does not ask, and it furnishes a passion that makes the quest exciting and buffers one from disappointments along the way" (p. 98).
Social psychologist Susan Fiske (Pers. Soc. Psych. Rev., 2004) lists several criteria for a good theory (paraphrased below):
- It proposes casual relationships.
- Attempts to be coherent (clear, logical, consistent).
- Tells a good story
- Seeks parsimony (simplicity).
- Is testable.
- Is "fertile" (inspires other scientists to test it and generate new research ideas).
- Solves problems.
Famed biologist E.O. Wilson, in his 1998 book Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge, argues that:

"Nothing in science -- nothing in life, for that matter -- makes sense without theory. It is our nature to put all knowledge into context in order to tell a story, and to re-create the world by this means." Referring to a phenomenon in astronomy involving stars, which yields important information, Wilson notes that without the proper theory, "they are no more than beautiful patterns of light" (p. 56).
BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) radio interview with our very own Texas Tech HDFS faculty member, Dr. Kazuko Behrens, on attachment theory. Among the other guests was Richard Bowlby, son of John Bowlby, the founder of attachment theory.

It is unlikely that any one single study could test all the implications of Erikson’s theory. Therefore, a researcher might try to test narrower hypotheses (smaller pieces) based on the theory.

Study by Houseknecht and colleagues (JMF, 1987) examines whether being married while in grad school is related to women's educational and career achievement. We will look at their hypotheses, derived from role-conflict theory (full text available from SocIndex database on TTU Library site). A later study from Cornell University expands upon these findings.

Different theories of what it takes to get elected as President of the United States -- and how these theories fared in 2008

THEORY	HYPOTHESIS/PREDICTION
"Broken Window" theory of crime and delinquency, which says that "nuisance-type" disorder, such as broken windows and graffiti, if left un-repaired, will give off the impression that local residents don't care about quality of life in the area, thus inviting a criminal element.	If a group of city workers and/or volunteers got together to clean up a neighborhood, paint the buildings, put in new windows, pick up the trash, etc., we would hypothesize (predict) that the crime rate in the neighborhood would go__________.
Einstein's Theory of Relativity, which says that space and time are integrated with each other ("spacetime") and that faster movement through space leads to slower movement through time (in tiny fractions of a second, not noticeable in everyday life).	If two clocks of extremely high precision were first synchronized to the same exact time, and then one clock was placed on an airplane to travel and the other left stationary, we would hypothesize (predict) that the clock that had flown would be running __________ than the clock that remained stationary.